Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Champions League, Promotion, and Relegation Odds: April 25

As we enter the home stretch in the English football season, we again simulate the remainder 5000 times to handicap the races for the Champions League, promotion playoffs, and relegation.

Tottenham gets a big boost after unexpectedly winning against Manchester City, but still appear the least likely of them, Arsenal, and Chelsea to lock up a spot in next season's champions league. Meanwhile, the third relegation spot looks to have come down to Aston Villa or Wigan with QPR and Reading already doomed.

In the Championship, the drama has turned to the playoff spots, as it's likely that three of them will go to Watford, Brighton, and Crystal Palace. Contending for the final spot are Bolton and Leicester, with Nottingham Forest on the outside looking in. When the playoff begins, I will be back to break down each team's chances of gaining promotion to the Premier League.

Match Odds April 27-30

Checking in today to post the odds for this weekend's matches, update the team ratings, and the wagering results.

This is apparently the final weekend of games for League One and League Two. Oddly, the former is the best league so far for the predictions here, while the latter has been disastrous.

As for the Premier League, the best values appear to be on Reading at home against QPR and Sunderland playing away to Aston Villa.

Back soon to forecast the top four, relegation, and promotion races.


Monday, April 22, 2013

England Matches April 22-23

A quick post for odds on the Tuesday English matches you will probably ignore this week while you watch the Champions League semifinal. I have included today's Premier League game from the last post as well too, showing United with a good chance to seal the deal.


Friday, April 19, 2013

Champions League, Promotion, and Relegation Odds: April 19

Back just before this weekend's games to give updated odds for Promotion, Relegation, and Champions League qualification for the top two English divisions, taking into account the Hull City draw earlier today.



Thursday, April 18, 2013

Match Forecasts April 19-22

A new week of football is here, with the Champions League semifinals being the cherry on top! In England, we have a full weekend of league fixtures, all of which are projected here for your forecasting pleasure.

I have also updated the team ratings and wagering results accordingly. Back tomorrow with odds for Champions League qualification, relegation, and promotion!


Thursday, April 11, 2013

Top Four, Relegation, and Promotion odds

Using the current Team Ratings and applying the multinomial projection model, I have simulated the remainder of the season in the top two English football divisions 5000 times to handicap the battles for promotion, relegation, and Champions League entry:




Match Odds April 12 - April 14

After the apocalypse that hit home teams last weekend, let's take a look at the odds for this week according to each model.

Note: I have changed the ratings slightly, they now only go back one season and the weights favoring more recent games are increased. You can find the updated version here, as always.



Both models are quite fond of the value offered for Notts County to defeat Colchester at home at odds of 2.25.

Monday, April 8, 2013

Midweek Fixtures April 9-10

Ouch. After a promising run in testing, the Poisson model managed the incredible feat of getting every Premier League prediction wrong. How could this have happened? The only possible explanation is match fixing orchestrated by Dan Tan. Surely it's not these models.

In the other leagues we saw small losses across the board except for some profits in League Two, where both models tested horribly. On the whole, I'm optimistic that they will net a profit in the long term as they seem to be spitting out fairly reasonable probabilities for each game.

After the action Wednesday I will produce a new set of ratings and run simulations for the remainder of each season in order to predict the battles for the Champions League spots, relegation, and promotion. In the meantime, here are today and tomorrow's fixtures for the lower leagues now that odds have been posted.



This format in Google docs will probably work better than the fusion tables I was previously using. Both models like the value for Millwall to beat Sheffield Wednesday.

Friday, April 5, 2013

Weekend Tips April 5 - April 8

I have posted the probability of a win, draw, or loss for every team's match this weekend. Let's take a look at the best betting values, according to the consensus of our two models. No games from League 2 will be considered until our performance improves in that arena.

Notts County to win at Bournemouth
Odds: 6.5; Multinomial model: 30%; Poisson model: 27.3%
Bournemouth is looking towards promotion while Notts County is toiling in mid-table of League One, but while our model likes Bournemouth's chances, it cannot resist snatching up Notts at such appealing odds.

Manchester United to defeat Manchester City at Old Trafford
Odds: 2.2; Multinomial model: 50.9%; Poisson model: 57.8%
The title race is all but over, and our numbers see value in United putting the final nail in the coffin at their home ground.

Coventry City to beat Brentford at home
Odds: 2.8; Multinomial model: 43.6%; Poisson model: 46%
Coventry easily has the best goal difference in League One's bottom half and our projections like the value in them defending their home ground against the promotion candidates.

Reading over Southampton at home
Odds: 3.25; Multinomial Model: 35.3%; Poisson: 47.8%
Our numbers love Southampton more than you'd expect (11th overall, 9th best attack) but these odds indicate that the bookies have overlooked Reading's chances to beat them at home as they fight to stay in the top division. Note that our projections do not factor in a new manager for Reading, only last weekend's poor result against Arsenal. Proceed with caution.

Good luck and enjoy the games!

Poisson Model Projections April 5 - April 8

Here are the result probabilities and suggested bets for each of the matches happening in England this weekend from our Poisson model. Bets are in Kelly betting units, this is how we track the profits, a higher number indicates greater confidence. I would recommend staying away from the League 2 games until we see a performance improvement!

Apologies for the format, I'm currently using Google fusion tables, which I'm not sure is the best long term solution. For information on this model and its past performance, please navigate to "More Info".


Multinomial Model Projections April 5 - April 8

Here are the result probabilities and suggested bets for each of the matches happening in England this weekend. Bets are in Kelly betting units, this is how we track the profits, a higher number indicates greater confidence. I would recommend staying away from the League 2 games until we see a performance improvement!

Apologies for the format, I'm currently using Google fusion tables, which I'm not sure is the best long term solution. For information on this model and its past performance, please navigate to "More Info".

Enjoy the games!

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Hi, thanks for visiting! I have just debuted my team ratings for English football, which you can find permanently linked near the top of the page. I will begin publishing predictions for games this weekend, and for the league finishes (top 4, relegation, promotion) next week. Stay tuned!