Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Match Forecasts: January 24 - February 3

We've got the Bundesliga back in action this weekend, which means more cockroaches for Bayern Munich to stomp on between Champions League ties while they cruise toward the title.

As I'll be traveling next week, luckily finding time to attend Southampton vs Arsenal, I have posted match odds for the next two weeks. When I return we'll take another look at where the league projections are at.

Friday, January 17, 2014

Match Forecasts: January 17-21

So this was supposed to go up early this morning, but the schedule post feature failed me. Also, if you missed it earlier, I posted league projections that handicap all European races for titles, spots in the Champions League, and relegation.

Here we've got a preview of the league action over the weekend. After a poor start, our bet suggestions are on fire and priced at 1.33, the model LOVES a Villarreal win at home on Sunday. Elsewhere, we have Chelsea taking all three points over Man United at a 55% clip, with most of the other big teams heavy favorites.


Wednesday, January 15, 2014

League Projections: January 15

It's time to put our game models to further use and handicap the outcome of each league. By simulating all remaining games 5,000 times, we can estimate the odds each team has of winning the title, qualifying for the Champions League, or facing relegation.

Let's begin with the English Premier League. As they continue winning games by staggering margins, our model likes Manchester City to win the title nearly 60% of the time, with Arsenal and Chelsea to challenge. These projections also heavily favor Liverpool to join them in next season's Champions League, but lurking Man United can still catch up. The relegation battle should be fought until the very end, with seven teams currently in serious danger.


ENGLAND Avg Pts Champs Top 4 Relegated
Man City 85.1 59.2% 99.3% 0.0%
Arsenal 81.6 19.9% 95.5% 0.0%
Chelsea 80.6 15.0% 93.6% 0.0%
Liverpool 77.7 5.7% 85.1% 0.0%
Everton 70.0 0.1% 15.4% 0.0%
Man United 67.5 0.0% 7.2% 0.0%
Tottenham 65.7 0.0% 3.9% 0.0%
Newcastle 54.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southampton 54.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hull 44.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%
Aston Villa 42.5 0.0% 0.0% 2.2%
Swansea 42.3 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
West Brom 41.6 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
Stoke 39.3 0.0% 0.0% 9.1%
Norwich 36.3 0.0% 0.0% 24.7%
West Ham 35.8 0.0% 0.0% 25.0%
Sunderland 34.0 0.0% 0.0% 40.2%
Fulham 32.0 0.0% 0.0% 65.6%
Cardiff 31.9 0.0% 0.0% 63.5%
Crystal Palace 31.8 0.0% 0.0% 63.2%


La Liga is home to the other exciting title race, with Barcelona favored over their rivals from the capital. It would also be fun to see Villarreal return to the Champions League after a year in the second division.


SPAIN Avg Pts Champs Top 4 Relegated
Barcelona 95.0 58.4% 100.0% 0.0%
Ath Madrid 92.6 26.2% 100.0% 0.0%
Real Madrid 90.9 15.3% 100.0% 0.0%
Villarreal 69.3 0.0% 54.4% 0.0%
Sociedad 66.3 0.0% 24.7% 0.0%
Ath Bilbao 64.5 0.0% 14.4% 0.0%
Sevilla 61.3 0.0% 6.4% 0.0%
Valencia 50.8 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Espanol 46.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%
Granada 45.4 0.0% 0.0% 1.3%
Levante 44.2 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
Malaga 43.6 0.0% 0.0% 3.8%
Getafe 42.4 0.0% 0.0% 6.6%
Osasuna 41.8 0.0% 0.0% 7.8%
Celta 40.9 0.0% 0.0% 8.8%
Elche 37.2 0.0% 0.0% 26.9%
Almeria 36.2 0.0% 0.0% 39.0%
Valladolid 35.7 0.0% 0.0% 39.2%
Vallecano 31.8 0.0% 0.0% 74.3%
Betis 28.5 0.0% 0.0% 88.5%


The German Bundesliga is still on winter break, but a title for Bayern Munich is assured. Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund each won the title in two of the 5,000 simulations.
 
GERMANY Avg Pts Champs Top 4 Relegated
Bayern Munich 90.8 99.92% 100.0% 0.0%
Leverkusen 70.3 0.04% 97.1% 0.0%
Dortmund 66.4 0.04% 89.7% 0.0%
M'Gladbach 61.9 0.00% 62.6% 0.0%
Wolfsburg 58.4 0.00% 27.3% 0.0%
Hertha 56.0 0.00% 12.9% 0.0%
Schalke 04 55.2 0.00% 10.3% 0.0%
Augsburg 44.5 0.00% 0.1% 0.2%
Mainz 43.5 0.00% 0.0% 0.4%
Stuttgart 40.5 0.00% 0.0% 2.1%
Hamburg 36.0 0.00% 0.0% 10.0%
Hoffenheim 35.9 0.00% 0.0% 11.0%
Hannover 35.9 0.00% 0.0% 12.3%
Ein Frankfurt 34.5 0.00% 0.0% 18.2%
Werder Bremen 33.4 0.00% 0.0% 29.0%
Freiburg 31.7 0.00% 0.0% 40.8%
Nurnberg 27.1 0.00% 0.0% 78.2%
Braunschweig 21.9 0.00% 0.0% 97.7%


On to Serie A, where despite Roma's storming start, a third straight Juventus championship is basically a foregone conclusion.
 
ITALY Avg Pts Champs Top 3 Relegated
Juventus 97.5 96.4% 100.0% 0.0%
Roma 84.0 2.6% 95.3% 0.0%
Napoli 82.0 1.0% 90.5% 0.0%
Fiorentina 73.1 0.0% 13.9% 0.0%
Inter 61.3 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Verona 60.7 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Parma 52.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Milan 51.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Torino 51.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lazio 50.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Genoa 45.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
Udinese 44.3 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
Sampdoria 43.1 0.0% 0.0% 1.6%
Cagliari 42.1 0.0% 0.0% 2.7%
Atalanta 40.6 0.0% 0.0% 4.9%
Chievo 37.7 0.0% 0.0% 13.9%
Bologna 33.6 0.0% 0.0% 43.6%
Sassuolo 31.4 0.0% 0.0% 68.9%
Catania 30.2 0.0% 0.0% 74.9%
Livorno 27.7 0.0% 0.0% 88.0%


Finally, in Ligue 1, Paris Saint-Germain will almost certainly win the title, and recent champions Montpellier must be wary of going down.


FRANCE Avg Pts Champs Top 3 Relegated
Paris SG 88.6 95.1% 100.0% 0.0%
Monaco 76.7 4.2% 95.6% 0.0%
Lille 72.2 0.6% 81.4% 0.0%
St Etienne 63.9 0.0% 13.0% 0.0%
Nantes 60.5 0.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Marseille 60.2 0.0% 3.5% 0.0%
Bordeaux 57.5 0.0% 1.3% 0.0%
Reims 57.2 0.0% 0.9% 0.0%
Lyon 52.9 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Toulouse 51.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Lorient 50.7 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Guingamp 48.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
Nice 46.0 0.0% 0.0% 1.9%
Bastia 43.8 0.0% 0.0% 3.3%
Rennes 42.4 0.0% 0.0% 5.3%
Montpellier 38.8 0.0% 0.0% 19.3%
Evian 38.6 0.0% 0.0% 23.7%
Valenciennes 35.7 0.0% 0.0% 47.5%
Sochaux 24.6 0.0% 0.0% 98.8%
Ajaccio 23.1 0.0% 0.0% 99.4%

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Match Forecasts: January 10-13

We're back from holiday this week with a new set of predictions, and a newly updated regression model to boot.

The big game of note this weekend is obviously Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona. Our model has noticed that home field is more important in Spain than anywhere else, so it makes a very aggressive prediction in favor of the hosts to the tune of a 57% win rate. Before you sprint to the betting window, however, note that we have seen a dip in form for Barca due to the absence of Lionel Messi, and as it cannot account for lineup changes his return should provide the Spanish champions a huge boost. Still, this will easily be the biggest test Barcelona have faced all season.

Lastly, our league projections are coming soon, which I guess would be more fun if the title weren't essentially wrapped up by Bayern, Juventus, and PSG in their respective leagues. But the Premier League should see a roaring finish, so here's a quick preview of the title race based on 5000 simulations of the remaining games:

Team Avg Pts Champs
Man City 83.9 57.6%
Arsenal 80.7 22.5%
Chelsea 78.9 13.3%
Liverpool 76.5 6.4%

And for the weekend action: