tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-76573598402311764822024-02-19T23:14:35.648-08:00The Football ForecastZackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-9132798553209035772014-01-22T20:29:00.002-08:002014-01-22T20:30:35.989-08:00Match Forecasts: January 24 - February 3We've got the Bundesliga back in action this weekend, which means more cockroaches for Bayern Munich to stomp on between Champions League ties while they cruise toward the title.<br />
<br />
As I'll be traveling next week, luckily finding time to attend Southampton vs Arsenal, I have posted match odds for the next two weeks. When I return we'll take another look at where the league projections are at.<br />
<br />
<iframe width='650' height='450' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dER0STFmN2t5SXBLZFZ2ME9SMWQ5LUE&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-19866611450000771122014-01-17T15:09:00.001-08:002014-01-17T15:09:02.837-08:00Match Forecasts: January 17-21So this was supposed to go up early this morning, but the schedule post feature failed me. Also, if you missed it earlier, I posted <a href="http://thefootballforecast.blogspot.com/2014/01/league-projections-january-15.html" target="_blank">league projections</a> that handicap all European races for titles, spots in the Champions League, and relegation.<br />
<br />
Here we've got a preview of the league action over the weekend. After a poor start, our bet suggestions are on fire and priced at 1.33, the model LOVES a Villarreal win at home on Sunday. Elsewhere, we have Chelsea taking all three points over Man United at a 55% clip, with most of the other big teams heavy favorites.<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="240" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dE5vTXR6UXRKYkV6cWtfWUJlSGJTcFE&output=html&widget=true" width="650"></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-74611684596284263902014-01-15T18:37:00.000-08:002014-01-15T18:38:15.964-08:00League Projections: January 15It's time to put our game models to further use and handicap the outcome of each league. By simulating all remaining games 5,000 times, we can estimate the odds each team has of winning the title, qualifying for the Champions League, or facing relegation.<br />
<br />
Let's begin with the <b>English Premier League</b>. As they continue winning games by staggering margins, our model likes Manchester City to win the title nearly 60% of the time, with Arsenal and Chelsea to challenge. These projections also heavily favor Liverpool to join them in next season's Champions League, but lurking Man United can still catch up. The relegation battle should be fought until the very end, with seven teams currently in serious danger.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 349px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 3401; mso-width-source: userset; width: 70pt;" width="93"></col>
<col span="4" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 70pt;" width="93"><b>ENGLAND</b></td>
<td class="xl63" style="border-left: medium none; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Avg Pts</b></td>
<td class="xl63" style="border-left: medium none; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Champs</b></td>
<td class="xl63" style="border-left: medium none; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Top 4</b></td>
<td class="xl63" style="border-left: medium none; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Relegated</b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Man City</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">85.1</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">59.2%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">99.3%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Arsenal</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">81.6</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">19.9%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">95.5%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Chelsea</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">80.6</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">15.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">93.6%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Liverpool</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">77.7</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">5.7%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">85.1%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Everton</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">70.0</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.1%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">15.4%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Man United</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">67.5</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">7.2%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Tottenham</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">65.7</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">3.9%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Newcastle</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">54.6</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Southampton</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">54.0</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Hull</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">44.8</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Aston Villa</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">42.5</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Swansea</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">42.3</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">West Brom</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">41.6</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Stoke</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">39.3</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">9.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Norwich</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">36.3</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">24.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">West Ham</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">35.8</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">25.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Sunderland</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">34.0</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">40.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Fulham</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">32.0</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">65.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Cardiff</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">31.9</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">63.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl64" height="20" style="border-top: none; height: 15.0pt;">Crystal Palace</td>
<td class="xl65" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">31.8</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl66" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: center;">63.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<b>La Liga </b>is home to the other exciting title race, with Barcelona favored over their rivals from the capital. It would also be fun to see Villarreal return to the Champions League after a year in the second division. <br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 349px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 3401; mso-width-source: userset; width: 70pt;" width="93"></col>
<col span="4" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 70pt;" width="93"><b>SPAIN</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Avg Pts</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Champs</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Top 4</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Relegated</b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Barcelona</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">95.0</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">58.4%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">100.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Ath Madrid</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">92.6</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">26.2%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">100.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Real Madrid</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">90.9</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">15.3%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">100.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Villarreal</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">69.3</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">54.4%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Sociedad</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">66.3</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">24.7%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Ath Bilbao</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">64.5</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">14.4%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Sevilla</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">61.3</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">6.4%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Valencia</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">50.8</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.1%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Espanol</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">46.4</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Granada</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">45.4</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Levante</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">44.2</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Malaga</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">43.6</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Getafe</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">42.4</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">6.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Osasuna</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">41.8</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">7.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Celta</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">40.9</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">8.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Elche</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">37.2</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">26.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Almeria</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">36.2</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">39.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Valladolid</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">35.7</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">39.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Vallecano</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">31.8</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">74.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Betis</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">28.5</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">88.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
The German <b>Bundesliga</b> is still on winter break, but a title for Bayern Munich is assured. Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund each won the title in two of the 5,000 simulations.<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 349px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 3401; mso-width-source: userset; width: 70pt;" width="93"></col>
<col span="4" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 70pt;" width="93"><b>GERMANY</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Avg Pts</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Champs</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Top 4</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Relegated</b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Bayern Munich</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">90.8</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">99.92%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">100.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Leverkusen</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">70.3</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.04%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">97.1%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Dortmund</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">66.4</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.04%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">89.7%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">M'Gladbach</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">61.9</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">62.6%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Wolfsburg</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">58.4</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">27.3%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Hertha</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">56.0</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">12.9%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Schalke 04</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">55.2</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">10.3%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Augsburg</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">44.5</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.1%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Mainz</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">43.5</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Stuttgart</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">40.5</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Hamburg</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">36.0</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">10.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Hoffenheim</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">35.9</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">11.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Hannover</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">35.9</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">12.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Ein Frankfurt</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">34.5</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">18.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Werder Bremen</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">33.4</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">29.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Freiburg</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">31.7</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">40.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Nurnberg</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">27.1</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">78.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Braunschweig</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">21.9</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">0.00%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">97.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
On to <b>Serie A</b>, where despite Roma's storming start, a third straight Juventus championship is basically a foregone conclusion. <br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 349px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 3401; mso-width-source: userset; width: 70pt;" width="93"></col>
<col span="4" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 70pt;" width="93"><b>ITALY</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Avg Pts</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Champs</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Top 3</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Relegated</b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Juventus</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">97.5</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">96.4%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">100.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Roma</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">84.0</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">2.6%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">95.3%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Napoli</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">82.0</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">1.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">90.5%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Fiorentina</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">73.1</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">13.9%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Inter</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">61.3</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.2%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Verona</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">60.7</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.1%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Parma</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">52.7</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Milan</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">51.7</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Torino</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">51.2</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Lazio</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">50.2</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Genoa</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">45.6</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Udinese</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">44.3</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Sampdoria</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">43.1</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Cagliari</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">42.1</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Atalanta</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">40.6</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Chievo</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">37.7</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">13.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Bologna</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">33.6</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">43.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Sassuolo</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">31.4</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">68.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Catania</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">30.2</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">74.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Livorno</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">27.7</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">88.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
Finally, in <b>Ligue 1</b>, Paris Saint-Germain will almost certainly win the title, and recent champions Montpellier must be wary of going down.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 349px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 3401; mso-width-source: userset; width: 70pt;" width="93"></col>
<col span="4" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 70pt;" width="93"><b>FRANCE</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Avg Pts</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Champs</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Top 3</b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Relegated</b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Paris SG</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">88.6</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">95.1%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">100.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Monaco</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">76.7</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">4.2%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">95.6%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Lille</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">72.2</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.6%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">81.4%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">St Etienne</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">63.9</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">13.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Nantes</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">60.5</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">4.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Marseille</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">60.2</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">3.5%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Bordeaux</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">57.5</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">1.3%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Reims</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">57.2</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.9%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Lyon</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">52.9</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.2%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Toulouse</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">51.1</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Lorient</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">50.7</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.1%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Guingamp</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">48.5</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Nice</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">46.0</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Bastia</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">43.8</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">3.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Rennes</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">42.4</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">5.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Montpellier</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">38.8</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">19.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Evian</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">38.6</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">23.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Valenciennes</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">35.7</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">47.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Sochaux</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">24.6</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">98.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Ajaccio</td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center;">23.1</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">0.0%</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">99.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-47580612457614046912014-01-09T19:14:00.001-08:002014-01-09T19:16:07.060-08:00Match Forecasts: January 10-13We're back from holiday this week with a new set of predictions, and a newly updated regression model to boot.
<br />
<br />
The big game of note this weekend is obviously Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona. Our model has noticed that home field is more important in Spain than anywhere else, so it makes a very aggressive prediction in favor of the hosts to the tune of a 57% win rate. Before you sprint to the betting window, however, note that we have seen a dip in form for Barca due to the absence of Lionel Messi, and as it cannot account for lineup changes his return should provide the Spanish champions a huge boost. Still, this will easily be the biggest test Barcelona have faced all season.<br />
<br />
Lastly, our league projections are coming soon, which I guess would be more fun if the title weren't essentially wrapped up by Bayern, Juventus, and PSG in their respective leagues. But the Premier League should see a roaring finish, so here's a quick preview of the title race based on 5000 simulations of the remaining games:<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 221px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 3401; mso-width-source: userset; width: 70pt;" width="93"></col>
<col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 70pt;" width="93"><b>Team</b></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Avg Pts</b></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b>Champs</b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Man City</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">83.9</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">57.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Arsenal</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">80.7</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">22.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Chelsea</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">78.9</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">13.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Liverpool</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: center;">76.5</td>
<td class="xl67" style="text-align: center;">6.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
And for the weekend action:<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="240" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dE53UHI0NVktb1U0bWZpSUdOT1M4Y0E&output=html&widget=true" width="650"></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-84793958047221165252013-12-25T20:52:00.000-08:002013-12-25T20:52:48.726-08:00EPL Holiday match forecastsHappy holidays to everyone!<br />
<br />
<br /><iframe width='550' height='250' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dF94NmcyeDg3Y0ZNQm5ReVFsZWFoOGc&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-56954739486380793592013-12-18T20:29:00.000-08:002013-12-18T20:29:28.134-08:00Match Forecasts: December 20-23Our models' best bets were finally profitable last week so let's see if they keep it going! Flip around the tabs to explore the complete lineup of games this weekend.<br />
<br />
<br /><iframe width='650' height='240' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dGJrcndBbGRuX0FOU21RRnVVWXlkYnc&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-46133166135643353632013-12-11T19:02:00.001-08:002013-12-11T19:02:29.045-08:00Match Forecasts: December 13-16Here are this weekend's match probabilities. Flip around the tabs to see different leagues:<br />
<br />
<br /><iframe width='650' height='240' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dEV3M1pjclRZSGhrNDZuTU85a2x1S2c&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-79077483403795633632013-12-06T18:21:00.000-08:002013-12-06T18:21:04.432-08:00Match Forecasts: December 6-9While Spain plays cup games, the rest of Europe is back to league action this weekend.<br />
<br />
<br /><iframe width='650' height='240' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dDdKTkIxbDg1NFg2NENJSkEwOHRROVE&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-46344690343841480352013-12-03T19:54:00.000-08:002013-12-03T19:54:14.168-08:00Match Forecasts: December 3-5Quick update for midweek matches.<br />
<br />
<iframe width='650' height='240' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dDNKQUpobHNZOWhSbTVQR0VYaThIekE&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-49338572930302851762013-11-28T08:22:00.000-08:002013-11-28T08:22:01.701-08:00Match Forecasts: November 29 - December 2Happy Thanksgiving to fellow Americans! Flip around the tabs below to look at the big games, best bets, and games for all of the top five leagues: <br />
<br />
<br /><iframe width='650' height='240' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dERJYkRJTFM3STZCZlZxTWpaWmF6T1E&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-41881348771868117992013-11-20T17:54:00.000-08:002013-11-20T17:55:34.540-08:00Match Forecasts: November 22-25After the merciful end of the international break, we get back into league football this weekend.<br />
<br />
I've added a couple new features to match forecasts this week. Firstly, the big games of interest across the leagues covered here are all grouped together on one sheet! In addition, I've taken the odds from Bet365, put them against my probabilities, and noted the games with the best perceived betting value, which happens this week to be mostly for home teams. The "amount" refers to a calculation made by the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion" target="_blank">Kelly Criterion</a>, which should always be used to determine a model's strength in beating books.<br />
<br />
Flip around the new features and the usual fully detailed forecasts of the top five leagues in the sheet below:<br />
<br />
<br /><iframe width='650' height='240' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dDI4ajJ1dWViNF94dG9DejhZTDNnWUE&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-27641268201009217572013-11-07T18:53:00.005-08:002013-11-07T18:54:27.288-08:00Match Forecasts: November 8-10With another weekend of matches to come in Europe, let's take a look at the match odds.<br />
<br />
The first of the main events in this round features Manchester United hosting Premier League leaders Arsenal, who we split about evenly. Meanwhile, Napoli visits Juventus, who now top our Serie A predictive ratings, and our model likes them to take a win over half the time. In Spain Real Madrid are expected to take care of Sociedad and Villarreal, who our numbers have loved all season long, are surprising favorites to come out on top over Atletico Madrid.<br />
<br />
More content to come in this space when I get some more time, including final table predictions with a view to handicap races for titles, Champions League spots, and relegation.<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="250" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dEE3ZjZIZ1ZvVFBpYk14dEh4ck5JeFE&output=html&widget=true" width="560"></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-56763408385600271372013-10-31T17:32:00.000-07:002013-10-31T17:32:20.542-07:00Match Forecasts: November 1-4We've got another full slate across Europe to look forward to this weekend, so let's get to it.<br />
<br />
These forecasts favor Arsenal on par with the books, projecting a win over Liverpool at the Emirates just short of half the time. As for the other fixtures between big clubs, we have Lille and Monaco about even, and Milan a solid favorite to capture three points against visiting Fiorentina.<br />
<br />
As for betting value, look to Verona to win at home against Cagliari in Italy, Roma to keep the perfect season alive in their visit to Torino, and Real Sociedad to beat Osasuna. There also may be a bit of value in England for Hull and West Brom to win home games against the Premier League's worst two teams.<br />
<br />
Flip around the tabs here to look across the big five European leagues:<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="250" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dHNieE56N3NzbnhHbGw5c00yOUJXMGc&output=html&widget=true" width="560"></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-34192046918593587842013-10-28T19:14:00.000-07:002013-10-28T19:14:03.105-07:00Match Forecasts: October 29-31A quick update to post probabilities for midweek league games in Spain and Italy. Team ratings have also been updated.<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="250" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dG84UGphcGxIWDZ3Q01sN1RPeENfQWc&output=html&widget=true" width="560"></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-80326019110293843732013-10-24T12:30:00.002-07:002013-10-24T12:30:58.187-07:00Match Forecasts: October 25-28After an interesting week in the Champions League, domestic competitions are back in Europe this weekend and that gives me the opportunity to cook up another batch of match probabilities.<br />
<br />
Two high profile games stand out among the rest. In England, the top two teams in our rankings square off as Manchester City travel to London to face Chelsea. Our mathematical model likes a home win just a bit more than the bookmakers do at a 46.6% clip, though against big clubs like City, Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho tends to play very conservatively.<br />
<br />
In Spain, we get the first Clasico of the season hosted by Barcelona. While Real Madrid managed to regain the second spot in our La Liga rankings from local rivals Atletico, our forecast has them coming out on top only 6.2% of the time. We therefore see some value in a Barcelona win, currently priced at 1.75 over at Bet365.<br />
<br />
Flip around the tabs here to see the probabilities of games from each of the top five European leagues:<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="250" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dFBUaDhnZXhLYVl2SE9CenVfaXMtU2c&output=html&widget=true" width="560"></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-50434256044923922792013-10-17T09:36:00.002-07:002013-10-17T09:36:43.020-07:00Match Forecasts: October 18-21<br />
After a long international break, European leagues resume this weekend.<br />
<br />
The big clashes of this round are in Serie A. Our logistic model likes Roma to continue their astonishing winning streak at home against second place Napoli more than half the time and make it eight wins in eight, while it also sees some betting value in Fiorentina to come away victorious over the defending champions Juventus.<br />
<br />
Elsewhere, incredibly, we also see some value against the books on a Bayern Munich victory over Mainz that would pay out ten cents on the dollar. In the Premier League, the big clubs are heavily favored, but expect Aston Villa to give Spurs all they can handle.<br />
<br />
As the ratings begin to get a feel for newly promoted teams and the landscape of each league, over the next month or two I will begin to examine betting recommendations and handicap the races for titles, Champions League places, and relegation.<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="250" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dEZmM2lTQnVQSk5aYWJtQ1IxNFBOOEE&output=html&widget=true" width="560"></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-71870607860007194882013-10-04T11:14:00.000-07:002013-10-04T11:14:13.300-07:00Match Forecasts: October 4-6After I crazy week I found just enough time to produce some match probabilities for this weekend. Enjoy the games!<br />
<br />
<br /><iframe width='550' height='250' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dDlLUEFSMm8xNWh3bGo5U0ZTb1l5Z2c&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-5551777600764969422013-09-26T15:44:00.000-07:002013-09-26T15:44:32.449-07:00Match Forecasts: September 27-30Back to post the game probabilities for this weekend's action.<br />
<br />
Of the big games this weekend, our model gives Spurs and Chelsea each an equal shot in their early Saturday showdown, while it likes Real Madrid to come out on top of their local rivals Atletico nearly 70% of the time. Bayern Munich's dominance continues, as we give them only a 2% chance to lose at home to an above average Wolfsburg team.<br />
<br />
Flip through the tabs on the table below to examine the forecasts for each of the top five leagues. As always, the ratings that feed our model have been updated after the midweek action and can be viewed over on the left frame. Enjoy the games this weekend.<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="250" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dGZkRThPZU9vMXgxb0hCMUF3V0FrSGc&output=html&widget=true" width="550"></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-49923413080546877752013-09-23T16:51:00.001-07:002013-09-23T16:51:35.490-07:00Match Forecasts: September 24-26While the English and German teams look towards a week of cup action, there are league games to be played in France, Italy, and Spain. Here's the debut of our Serie A predictions along with the other midweek fixtures.<br />
<br />
It's worth noting just how badly Sassuolo has fared in the Serie A thus far. With one goal scored and fifteen conceded in their four games, we rate them more than three goals worse than Verona, the second worst team in our rankings. We need to expand our decimal places to see that our model gives them a 0.04% chance to win in Napoli--good for once in 2,500 tries! So don't get tempted by the 14 to 1 payout betting them.<br />
<br />
<br /><iframe width='550' height='250' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dDNwdFZtb090UktfNE1FUnhWbS04a0E&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-12575193944608892402013-09-19T08:01:00.000-07:002013-09-19T08:01:11.882-07:00Match Forecasts: September 20-22And we're back!<br />
<br />
I have run my first version of team ratings for the top five leagues, which can be found on the left sidebar, and fed them into our logistic regression model to assign probabilities to this weekend's games.<br />
<br />
As our ratings are still trying to get a good grasp on newly promoted teams, I won't be tracking bet amounts for the model for another week or two. Also, as the Italian league has played only three rounds to date, we are going to give the model another week to adjust before publishing forecasts in Serie A.<br />
<br />
Flip around the tabs in the spreadsheet below to examine different leagues.<br />
<br />
<br /><iframe width='550' height='250' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dGhpMlQwb1dpd1llZDJoYU8tdnZ5Qmc&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-10001621183786808192013-08-09T05:40:00.001-07:002013-08-09T05:40:29.663-07:00The 2013-14 SeasonWell, it's August 9th and the leagues in Germany & France kick off today. Just a quick update here to inform everyone that these match forecasts will be back soon--the goal is to have them up by the first matches of September. Given the summer of player turnover throughout Europe, any objective prediction I could make using publicly available data based on last season's results would be shaky, at best, so I believe this is the way to go for now.<br />
<br />
As of now the plan is to offer forecasts for the top divisions in England, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France. Time permitting, I hope to add the UEFA Champions League and Europa League as their group stages get underway.<br />
<br />
Enjoy the start of the new season and watch this space come September!Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-55509079963704536962013-05-16T18:27:00.000-07:002013-05-16T18:27:08.898-07:00Premier League Match Odds: Final RoundBack for the final time this season to post odds on this weekend's final round of Premier League matches.<br />
<br />
With Manchester United winning the title last month and Wigan confirmed as the final relegated team on Tuesday, the only race with long term consequences is for the final Champions League spot between Arsenal and Tottenham (though Arsenal have a chance to move ahead of Chelsea into 3rd). Tottenham need to defeat Sunderland at home and have Arsenal either lose or draw in their game at Newcastle. Using the match forecasts in the table below, Arsenal have a 70.6% probability to finish ahead of their rivals, giving Spurs odds of only 29.4%.<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe width='500' height='320' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dDNKNFJjV0tnQTN1Y19LUWZNcDFMaXc&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>
<br />Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-1347587124436891262013-05-10T11:00:00.001-07:002013-05-10T11:01:14.443-07:00Handicapping the Premier League Top Four and Relegation Races (5/10)Not going to waste words here as everyone knows the stakes at this point with two games to go. Another 5000 simulations, another new set of odds. Tottenham's draw in Chelsea's ground did not drastically change the picture for the Champions League spots:<br />
<br />
<b>Odds of Finishing in the Top Four</b><br />
Chelsea: 94.1%<br />
Arsenal: 80.5%<br />
Tottenham: 25.4%<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, down in the relegation zone, Wigan's defeat at the hands of Swansea has left them as quite unlikely participants in the next Premier League season:<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Odds to be Relegated to the Championship</b><br />
Wigan: 82.1%<br />
Norwich: 9.5%<br />
Newcastle: 6.9%<br />
Sunderland: 1.25%<br />
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Aston Villa, Southampton, and Fulham go down at a rate of less than one-tenth of a percent.Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-29008938250036796122013-05-09T13:39:00.000-07:002013-05-10T09:27:05.569-07:00Premier League Match Forecasts, May 11-14Now that I've posted the <a href="http://thefootballforecast.blogspot.com/2013/05/championship-playoff-preview.html" target="_blank">preview of the Championship Playoffs</a>, all that's left for this football season is the final two rounds of Premier League action, as well as the FA Cup final. I'll be back tomorrow to give an update to the races for the Champions League places, as well as the relegation battle, following the midweek games.<br />
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EDIT: Please note that the FA Cup final was treated as a neutral field. Also, if you were to assume that extra time and penalties are a 50/50 proposition, Man City would win the cup 82.5% of the time, leaving 17.5% to Wigan.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="320" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AgU2vnbqll60dFc2dWJBTFd5b3pXZ0pKeUI1U0xjOUE&output=html&widget=true" width="500"></iframe>Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7657359840231176482.post-32145729586920528032013-05-08T21:59:00.000-07:002013-05-08T21:59:03.033-07:00Championship Playoff PreviewWith Cardiff City and Hull City already locking up their spots in the next Premier League season, the Championship Playoff for the final spot is set to begin.<br />
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Using the Poisson goals model, I ran 5,000 simulations of the two-legged first round and the resulting final. The four contenders to grab the final lucrative spot in the top division are profiled here, along with their odds of winning (ranks <u><i>include</i></u> clubs currently in the Premier League):<br />
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<u><b>Watford</b></u><br />
Table position: 3<br />
Goal difference: 27<br />
Attack rating: 2.11 (Rank: 13)<br />
Defense rating: 0.95 (Rank: 31)<br />
Overall: 1.161 (Rank: 22)<br />
Advances over Leicester City at a rate of 51.69% to reach the final.<br />
Wins promotion in 28.34% of simulations.<br />
Likely to be the flavor of the neutrals after scoring 85 goals this season, these numbers say that Watford's offense is worthy of a mid-table team at the top level.<br />
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<u><b>Brighton & Hove Albion</b></u><br />
Table position: 4<br />
Goal difference: 26<br />
Attack rating: 1.81 (Rank: 26)<br />
Defense rating: 0.65 (Rank: 16)<br />
Overall: 1.162 (Rank: 21)<br />
Advances over Crystal Palace at a rate of 60.55% to reach the final.<br />
Wins promotion in 30.30% of simulations.<br />A shade better than Watford overall in our rankings. Thanks mostly to a draw against the weakest first round opponent, Brighton are favorites to secure a spot in the Premier League.<br />
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<u><b>Crystal Palace</b></u><br />
Table position: 5<br />
Goal difference: 11<br />
Attack rating: 1.78 (Rank: 28)<br />
Defense rating: 0.96 (Rank: 34)<br />
Overall: 0.83 (Rank: 29)<br />
Advances over Brighton at a rate of 39.45% to reach the final.<br />
Wins promotion in 15.98% of simulations.<br />The longest shot to gain promotion according to our numbers and the bookmakers, but in a four team knockout, the odds are never all that long. <br />
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<u><b>Leicester City</b></u><br />
Table position: 6<br />
Goal difference: 23<br />
Attack rating: 1.90 (Rank: 21)<br />
Defense rating: 0.76 (Rank: 20)<br />
Overall: 1.14 (Rank: 23)<br />
Advances over Watford at a rate of 48.31% to reach the final.<br />
Wins promotion in 25.38% of simulations.Crept into the picture on the final day with a huge win over Nottingham Forest. You know, like a fox. Okay, I'm done, I'll be back soon to post weekend match odds for the Premier League, FA Cup Final, and give an update on the top four race. Enjoy the games.Zackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05886569268528321516noreply@blogger.com0