Match Forecasts: January 24 - February 3

We've got the Bundesliga back in action this weekend, which means more cockroaches for Bayern Munich to stomp on between Champions League ties while they cruise toward the title.

As I'll be traveling next week, luckily finding time to attend Southampton vs Arsenal, I have posted match odds for the next two weeks. When I return we'll take another look at where the league projections are at.

League Projections: January 15

It's time to put our game models to further use and handicap the outcome of each league. By simulating all remaining games 5,000 times, we can estimate the odds each team has of winning the title, qualifying for the Champions League, or facing relegation.

Let's begin with the English Premier League. As they continue winning games by staggering margins, our model likes Manchester City to win the title nearly 60% of the time, with Arsenal and Chelsea to challenge. These projections also heavily favor Liverpool to join them in next season's Champions League, but lurking Man United can still catch up. The relegation battle should be fought until the very end, with seven teams currently in serious danger.

ENGLAND	Avg Pts	Champs	Top 4	Relegated
Man City	85.1	59.2%	99.3%	0.0%
Arsenal	81.6	19.9%	95.5%	0.0%
Chelsea	80.6	15.0%	93.6%	0.0%
Liverpool	77.7	5.7%	85.1%	0.0%
Everton	70.0	0.1%	15.4%	0.0%
Man United	67.5	0.0%	7.2%	0.0%
Tottenham	65.7	0.0%	3.9%	0.0%
Newcastle	54.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Southampton	54.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Hull	44.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%
Aston Villa	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	2.2%
Swansea	42.3	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%
West Brom	41.6	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%
Stoke	39.3	0.0%	0.0%	9.1%
Norwich	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	24.7%
West Ham	35.8	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%
Sunderland	34.0	0.0%	0.0%	40.2%
Fulham	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	65.6%
Cardiff	31.9	0.0%	0.0%	63.5%
Crystal Palace	31.8	0.0%	0.0%	63.2%

La Liga is home to the other exciting title race, with Barcelona favored over their rivals from the capital. It would also be fun to see Villarreal return to the Champions League after a year in the second division.

SPAIN	Avg Pts	Champs	Top 4	Relegated
Barcelona	95.0	58.4%	100.0%	0.0%
Ath Madrid	92.6	26.2%	100.0%	0.0%
Real Madrid	90.9	15.3%	100.0%	0.0%
Villarreal	69.3	0.0%	54.4%	0.0%
Sociedad	66.3	0.0%	24.7%	0.0%
Ath Bilbao	64.5	0.0%	14.4%	0.0%
Sevilla	61.3	0.0%	6.4%	0.0%
Valencia	50.8	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
Espanol	46.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%
Granada	45.4	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%
Levante	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%
Malaga	43.6	0.0%	0.0%	3.8%
Getafe	42.4	0.0%	0.0%	6.6%
Osasuna	41.8	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%
Celta	40.9	0.0%	0.0%	8.8%
Elche	37.2	0.0%	0.0%	26.9%
Almeria	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	39.0%
Valladolid	35.7	0.0%	0.0%	39.2%
Vallecano	31.8	0.0%	0.0%	74.3%
Betis	28.5	0.0%	0.0%	88.5%

The German Bundesliga is still on winter break, but a title for Bayern Munich is assured. Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund each won the title in two of the 5,000 simulations.
 

GERMANY	Avg Pts	Champs	Top 4	Relegated
Bayern Munich	90.8	99.92%	100.0%	0.0%
Leverkusen	70.3	0.04%	97.1%	0.0%
Dortmund	66.4	0.04%	89.7%	0.0%
M'Gladbach	61.9	0.00%	62.6%	0.0%
Wolfsburg	58.4	0.00%	27.3%	0.0%
Hertha	56.0	0.00%	12.9%	0.0%
Schalke 04	55.2	0.00%	10.3%	0.0%
Augsburg	44.5	0.00%	0.1%	0.2%
Mainz	43.5	0.00%	0.0%	0.4%
Stuttgart	40.5	0.00%	0.0%	2.1%
Hamburg	36.0	0.00%	0.0%	10.0%
Hoffenheim	35.9	0.00%	0.0%	11.0%
Hannover	35.9	0.00%	0.0%	12.3%
Ein Frankfurt	34.5	0.00%	0.0%	18.2%
Werder Bremen	33.4	0.00%	0.0%	29.0%
Freiburg	31.7	0.00%	0.0%	40.8%
Nurnberg	27.1	0.00%	0.0%	78.2%
Braunschweig	21.9	0.00%	0.0%	97.7%

On to Serie A, where despite Roma's storming start, a third straight Juventus championship is basically a foregone conclusion.
 

ITALY	Avg Pts	Champs	Top 3	Relegated
Juventus	97.5	96.4%	100.0%	0.0%
Roma	84.0	2.6%	95.3%	0.0%
Napoli	82.0	1.0%	90.5%	0.0%
Fiorentina	73.1	0.0%	13.9%	0.0%
Inter	61.3	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Verona	60.7	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Parma	52.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Milan	51.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Torino	51.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Lazio	50.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Genoa	45.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
Udinese	44.3	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%
Sampdoria	43.1	0.0%	0.0%	1.6%
Cagliari	42.1	0.0%	0.0%	2.7%
Atalanta	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	4.9%
Chievo	37.7	0.0%	0.0%	13.9%
Bologna	33.6	0.0%	0.0%	43.6%
Sassuolo	31.4	0.0%	0.0%	68.9%
Catania	30.2	0.0%	0.0%	74.9%
Livorno	27.7	0.0%	0.0%	88.0%

Finally, in Ligue 1, Paris Saint-Germain will almost certainly win the title, and recent champions Montpellier must be wary of going down.

FRANCE	Avg Pts	Champs	Top 3	Relegated
Paris SG	88.6	95.1%	100.0%	0.0%
Monaco	76.7	4.2%	95.6%	0.0%
Lille	72.2	0.6%	81.4%	0.0%
St Etienne	63.9	0.0%	13.0%	0.0%
Nantes	60.5	0.0%	4.0%	0.0%
Marseille	60.2	0.0%	3.5%	0.0%
Bordeaux	57.5	0.0%	1.3%	0.0%
Reims	57.2	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%
Lyon	52.9	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Toulouse	51.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Lorient	50.7	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Guingamp	48.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
Nice	46.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%
Bastia	43.8	0.0%	0.0%	3.3%
Rennes	42.4	0.0%	0.0%	5.3%
Montpellier	38.8	0.0%	0.0%	19.3%
Evian	38.6	0.0%	0.0%	23.7%
Valenciennes	35.7	0.0%	0.0%	47.5%
Sochaux	24.6	0.0%	0.0%	98.8%
Ajaccio	23.1	0.0%	0.0%	99.4%

Match Forecasts: January 10-13

We're back from holiday this week with a new set of predictions, and a newly updated regression model to boot.

The big game of note this weekend is obviously Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona. Our model has noticed that home field is more important in Spain than anywhere else, so it makes a very aggressive prediction in favor of the hosts to the tune of a 57% win rate. Before you sprint to the betting window, however, note that we have seen a dip in form for Barca due to the absence of Lionel Messi, and as it cannot account for lineup changes his return should provide the Spanish champions a huge boost. Still, this will easily be the biggest test Barcelona have faced all season.

Lastly, our league projections are coming soon, which I guess would be more fun if the title weren't essentially wrapped up by Bayern, Juventus, and PSG in their respective leagues. But the Premier League should see a roaring finish, so here's a quick preview of the title race based on 5000 simulations of the remaining games:

Team	Avg Pts	Champs
Man City	83.9	57.6%
Arsenal	80.7	22.5%
Chelsea	78.9	13.3%
Liverpool	76.5	6.4%

And for the weekend action:

EPL Holiday match forecasts

Happy holidays to everyone!

Match Forecasts: December 20-23

Our models' best bets were finally profitable last week so let's see if they keep it going! Flip around the tabs to explore the complete lineup of games this weekend.

Match Forecasts: December 13-16

Here are this weekend's match probabilities. Flip around the tabs to see different leagues:

Match Forecasts: December 6-9

While Spain plays cup games, the rest of Europe is back to league action this weekend.

Match Forecasts: December 3-5

Quick update for midweek matches.

Match Forecasts: November 29 - December 2

Happy Thanksgiving to fellow Americans! Flip around the tabs below to look at the big games, best bets, and games for all of the top five leagues:

Match Forecasts: November 22-25

After the merciful end of the international break, we get back into league football this weekend.

I've added a couple new features to match forecasts this week. Firstly, the big games of interest across the leagues covered here are all grouped together on one sheet! In addition, I've taken the odds from Bet365, put them against my probabilities, and noted the games with the best perceived betting value, which happens this week to be mostly for home teams. The "amount" refers to a calculation made by the Kelly Criterion, which should always be used to determine a model's strength in beating books.

Flip around the new features and the usual fully detailed forecasts of the top five leagues in the sheet below:

Match Forecasts: November 8-10

With another weekend of matches to come in Europe, let's take a look at the match odds.

The first of the main events in this round features Manchester United hosting Premier League leaders Arsenal, who we split about evenly. Meanwhile, Napoli visits Juventus, who now top our Serie A predictive ratings, and our model likes them to take a win over half the time. In Spain Real Madrid are expected to take care of Sociedad and Villarreal, who our numbers have loved all season long, are surprising favorites to come out on top over Atletico Madrid.

More content to come in this space when I get some more time, including final table predictions with a view to handicap races for titles, Champions League spots, and relegation.

Match Forecasts: November 1-4

We've got another full slate across Europe to look forward to this weekend, so let's get to it.

These forecasts favor Arsenal on par with the books, projecting a win over Liverpool at the Emirates just short of half the time. As for the other fixtures between big clubs, we have Lille and Monaco about even, and Milan a solid favorite to capture three points against visiting Fiorentina.

As for betting value, look to Verona to win at home against Cagliari in Italy, Roma to keep the perfect season alive in their visit to Torino, and Real Sociedad to beat Osasuna. There also may be a bit of value in England for Hull and West Brom to win home games against the Premier League's worst two teams.

Flip around the tabs here to look across the big five European leagues:

Match Forecasts: October 25-28

After an interesting week in the Champions League, domestic competitions are back in Europe this weekend and that gives me the opportunity to cook up another batch of match probabilities.

Two high profile games stand out among the rest. In England, the top two teams in our rankings square off as Manchester City travel to London to face Chelsea. Our mathematical model likes a home win just a bit more than the bookmakers do at a 46.6% clip, though against big clubs like City, Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho tends to play very conservatively.

In Spain, we get the first Clasico of the season hosted by Barcelona. While Real Madrid managed to regain the second spot in our La Liga rankings from local rivals Atletico, our forecast has them coming out on top only 6.2% of the time. We therefore see some value in a Barcelona win, currently priced at 1.75 over at Bet365.

Flip around the tabs here to see the probabilities of games from each of the top five European leagues:

Match Forecasts: October 18-21

After a long international break, European leagues resume this weekend.

The big clashes of this round are in Serie A. Our logistic model likes Roma to continue their astonishing winning streak at home against second place Napoli more than half the time and make it eight wins in eight, while it also sees some betting value in Fiorentina to come away victorious over the defending champions Juventus.

Elsewhere, incredibly, we also see some value against the books on a Bayern Munich victory over Mainz that would pay out ten cents on the dollar. In the Premier League, the big clubs are heavily favored, but expect Aston Villa to give Spurs all they can handle.

As the ratings begin to get a feel for newly promoted teams and the landscape of each league, over the next month or two I will begin to examine betting recommendations and handicap the races for titles, Champions League places, and relegation.

Match Forecasts: October 4-6

After I crazy week I found just enough time to produce some match probabilities for this weekend. Enjoy the games!

Match Forecasts: September 27-30

Back to post the game probabilities for this weekend's action.

Of the big games this weekend, our model gives Spurs and Chelsea each an equal shot in their early Saturday showdown, while it likes Real Madrid to come out on top of their local rivals Atletico nearly 70% of the time. Bayern Munich's dominance continues, as we give them only a 2% chance to lose at home to an above average Wolfsburg team.

Flip through the tabs on the table below to examine the forecasts for each of the top five leagues. As always, the ratings that feed our model have been updated after the midweek action and can be viewed over on the left frame. Enjoy the games this weekend.

Premier League Match Odds: Final Round

Back for the final time this season to post odds on this weekend's final round of Premier League matches.

With Manchester United winning the title last month and Wigan confirmed as the final relegated team on Tuesday, the only race with long term consequences is for the final Champions League spot between Arsenal and Tottenham (though Arsenal have a chance to move ahead of Chelsea into 3rd). Tottenham need to defeat Sunderland at home and have Arsenal either lose or draw in their game at Newcastle. Using the match forecasts in the table below, Arsenal have a 70.6% probability to finish ahead of their rivals, giving Spurs odds of only 29.4%.

Handicapping the Premier League Top Four and Relegation Races (5/10)

Not going to waste words here as everyone knows the stakes at this point with two games to go. Another 5000 simulations, another new set of odds. Tottenham's draw in Chelsea's ground did not drastically change the picture for the Champions League spots:

Odds of Finishing in the Top Four
Chelsea: 94.1%
Arsenal: 80.5%
Tottenham: 25.4%

Meanwhile, down in the relegation zone, Wigan's defeat at the hands of Swansea has left them as quite unlikely participants in the next Premier League season:

Odds to be Relegated to the Championship
Wigan: 82.1%
Norwich: 9.5%
Newcastle: 6.9%
Sunderland: 1.25%


Aston Villa, Southampton, and Fulham go down at a rate of less than one-tenth of a percent.

Premier League Match Forecasts, May 11-14

Now that I've posted the preview of the Championship Playoffs, all that's left for this football season is the final two rounds of Premier League action, as well as the FA Cup final. I'll be back tomorrow to give an update to the races for the Champions League places, as well as the relegation battle, following the midweek games.

EDIT: Please note that the FA Cup final was treated as a neutral field. Also, if you were to assume that extra time and penalties are a 50/50 proposition, Man City would win the cup 82.5% of the time, leaving 17.5% to Wigan.

Premier League Top Four and Relegation Odds: May 7

Before tonight's pair of games and tomorrow's massively important Chelsea-Spurs showdown, I re-ran the team ratings, which are updated on their page, to provide the current odds for relegation and Champions League qualification.

Manchester United is obviously locked in for the Champions League with their title in hand, while their local rivals do not fail to finish top four in any of my 5000 simulations for the remainder of the league. That leaves the final two spots to be fought out in London, between Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham Hotspur. In our sims, Chelsea qualifies 94.52% of the time, having received a huge boost winning at Old Trafford on Sunday. Meanwhile, Arsenal manage to finish in the top four in 82.04% of our seasons, which leaves Spurs behind at 23.46%.

Currently, I have Chelsea as a 55% favorite to defeat Spurs at Stamford Bridge tomorrow, with 27% chance of a draw and only a 18% chance that Spurs come away with a vital win. If they do that, however, it would be a massive boost as Spurs would finish top four 62.9% of the time, with Chelsea's odds dropping to 76.7% and Arsenal's to 60.4%.

At the bottom, with Reading and QPR already down, the final relegation spot looks certain to belong to one of Wigan, Norwich, Newcastle, or Sunderland. The full odds are below for all candidates:

Wigan	47.42%
Norwich	30.62%
Newcastle	14.48%
Sunderland	6.10%
Southampton	0.62%
Aston Villa	0.60%
Fulham	0.16%

I will be back of course to preview the Championship playoffs later in the week!