Match Forecasts: January 24 - February 3

We've got the Bundesliga back in action this weekend, which means more cockroaches for Bayern Munich to stomp on between Champions League ties while they cruise toward the title.

As I'll be traveling next week, luckily finding time to attend Southampton vs Arsenal, I have posted match odds for the next two weeks. When I return we'll take another look at where the league projections are at.

Match Forecasts: January 10-13

We're back from holiday this week with a new set of predictions, and a newly updated regression model to boot.

The big game of note this weekend is obviously Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona. Our model has noticed that home field is more important in Spain than anywhere else, so it makes a very aggressive prediction in favor of the hosts to the tune of a 57% win rate. Before you sprint to the betting window, however, note that we have seen a dip in form for Barca due to the absence of Lionel Messi, and as it cannot account for lineup changes his return should provide the Spanish champions a huge boost. Still, this will easily be the biggest test Barcelona have faced all season.

Lastly, our league projections are coming soon, which I guess would be more fun if the title weren't essentially wrapped up by Bayern, Juventus, and PSG in their respective leagues. But the Premier League should see a roaring finish, so here's a quick preview of the title race based on 5000 simulations of the remaining games:

Team	Avg Pts	Champs
Man City	83.9	57.6%
Arsenal	80.7	22.5%
Chelsea	78.9	13.3%
Liverpool	76.5	6.4%

And for the weekend action:

Match Forecasts: December 20-23

Our models' best bets were finally profitable last week so let's see if they keep it going! Flip around the tabs to explore the complete lineup of games this weekend.

Match Forecasts: December 13-16

Here are this weekend's match probabilities. Flip around the tabs to see different leagues:

Match Forecasts: December 6-9

While Spain plays cup games, the rest of Europe is back to league action this weekend.

Match Forecasts: December 3-5

Quick update for midweek matches.

Match Forecasts: November 29 - December 2

Happy Thanksgiving to fellow Americans! Flip around the tabs below to look at the big games, best bets, and games for all of the top five leagues:

Match Forecasts: November 22-25

After the merciful end of the international break, we get back into league football this weekend.

I've added a couple new features to match forecasts this week. Firstly, the big games of interest across the leagues covered here are all grouped together on one sheet! In addition, I've taken the odds from Bet365, put them against my probabilities, and noted the games with the best perceived betting value, which happens this week to be mostly for home teams. The "amount" refers to a calculation made by the Kelly Criterion, which should always be used to determine a model's strength in beating books.

Flip around the new features and the usual fully detailed forecasts of the top five leagues in the sheet below: