Match Forecasts: January 24 - February 3

We've got the Bundesliga back in action this weekend, which means more cockroaches for Bayern Munich to stomp on between Champions League ties while they cruise toward the title.

As I'll be traveling next week, luckily finding time to attend Southampton vs Arsenal, I have posted match odds for the next two weeks. When I return we'll take another look at where the league projections are at.

Match Forecasts: December 20-23

Our models' best bets were finally profitable last week so let's see if they keep it going! Flip around the tabs to explore the complete lineup of games this weekend.

Match Forecasts: December 13-16

Here are this weekend's match probabilities. Flip around the tabs to see different leagues:

Match Forecasts: December 6-9

While Spain plays cup games, the rest of Europe is back to league action this weekend.

Match Forecasts: November 29 - December 2

Happy Thanksgiving to fellow Americans! Flip around the tabs below to look at the big games, best bets, and games for all of the top five leagues:

Match Forecasts: November 22-25

After the merciful end of the international break, we get back into league football this weekend.

I've added a couple new features to match forecasts this week. Firstly, the big games of interest across the leagues covered here are all grouped together on one sheet! In addition, I've taken the odds from Bet365, put them against my probabilities, and noted the games with the best perceived betting value, which happens this week to be mostly for home teams. The "amount" refers to a calculation made by the Kelly Criterion, which should always be used to determine a model's strength in beating books.

Flip around the new features and the usual fully detailed forecasts of the top five leagues in the sheet below:

Match Forecasts: November 8-10

With another weekend of matches to come in Europe, let's take a look at the match odds.

The first of the main events in this round features Manchester United hosting Premier League leaders Arsenal, who we split about evenly. Meanwhile, Napoli visits Juventus, who now top our Serie A predictive ratings, and our model likes them to take a win over half the time. In Spain Real Madrid are expected to take care of Sociedad and Villarreal, who our numbers have loved all season long, are surprising favorites to come out on top over Atletico Madrid.

More content to come in this space when I get some more time, including final table predictions with a view to handicap races for titles, Champions League spots, and relegation.

Match Forecasts: November 1-4

We've got another full slate across Europe to look forward to this weekend, so let's get to it.

These forecasts favor Arsenal on par with the books, projecting a win over Liverpool at the Emirates just short of half the time. As for the other fixtures between big clubs, we have Lille and Monaco about even, and Milan a solid favorite to capture three points against visiting Fiorentina.

As for betting value, look to Verona to win at home against Cagliari in Italy, Roma to keep the perfect season alive in their visit to Torino, and Real Sociedad to beat Osasuna. There also may be a bit of value in England for Hull and West Brom to win home games against the Premier League's worst two teams.

Flip around the tabs here to look across the big five European leagues:

Match Forecasts: October 25-28

After an interesting week in the Champions League, domestic competitions are back in Europe this weekend and that gives me the opportunity to cook up another batch of match probabilities.

Two high profile games stand out among the rest. In England, the top two teams in our rankings square off as Manchester City travel to London to face Chelsea. Our mathematical model likes a home win just a bit more than the bookmakers do at a 46.6% clip, though against big clubs like City, Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho tends to play very conservatively.

In Spain, we get the first Clasico of the season hosted by Barcelona. While Real Madrid managed to regain the second spot in our La Liga rankings from local rivals Atletico, our forecast has them coming out on top only 6.2% of the time. We therefore see some value in a Barcelona win, currently priced at 1.75 over at Bet365.

Flip around the tabs here to see the probabilities of games from each of the top five European leagues:

Match Forecasts: October 18-21

After a long international break, European leagues resume this weekend.

The big clashes of this round are in Serie A. Our logistic model likes Roma to continue their astonishing winning streak at home against second place Napoli more than half the time and make it eight wins in eight, while it also sees some betting value in Fiorentina to come away victorious over the defending champions Juventus.

Elsewhere, incredibly, we also see some value against the books on a Bayern Munich victory over Mainz that would pay out ten cents on the dollar. In the Premier League, the big clubs are heavily favored, but expect Aston Villa to give Spurs all they can handle.

As the ratings begin to get a feel for newly promoted teams and the landscape of each league, over the next month or two I will begin to examine betting recommendations and handicap the races for titles, Champions League places, and relegation.

Match Forecasts: October 4-6

After I crazy week I found just enough time to produce some match probabilities for this weekend. Enjoy the games!

Match Forecasts: September 27-30

Back to post the game probabilities for this weekend's action.

Of the big games this weekend, our model gives Spurs and Chelsea each an equal shot in their early Saturday showdown, while it likes Real Madrid to come out on top of their local rivals Atletico nearly 70% of the time. Bayern Munich's dominance continues, as we give them only a 2% chance to lose at home to an above average Wolfsburg team.

Flip through the tabs on the table below to examine the forecasts for each of the top five leagues. As always, the ratings that feed our model have been updated after the midweek action and can be viewed over on the left frame. Enjoy the games this weekend.