Championship Playoff Preview

With Cardiff City and Hull City already locking up their spots in the next Premier League season, the Championship Playoff for the final spot is set to begin.

Using the Poisson goals model, I ran 5,000 simulations of the two-legged first round and the resulting final. The four contenders to grab the final lucrative spot in the top division are profiled here, along with their odds of winning (ranks include clubs currently in the Premier League):

Watford
Table position: 3
Goal difference: 27
Attack rating: 2.11 (Rank: 13)
Defense rating: 0.95 (Rank: 31)
Overall: 1.161 (Rank: 22)
Advances over Leicester City at a rate of 51.69% to reach the final.
Wins promotion in 28.34% of simulations.
Likely to be the flavor of the neutrals after scoring 85 goals this season, these numbers say that Watford's offense is worthy of a mid-table team at the top level.

Brighton & Hove Albion
Table position: 4
Goal difference: 26
Attack rating: 1.81 (Rank: 26)
Defense rating: 0.65 (Rank: 16)
Overall: 1.162 (Rank: 21)
Advances over Crystal Palace at a rate of 60.55% to reach the final.
Wins promotion in 30.30% of simulations.
A shade better than Watford overall in our rankings. Thanks mostly to a draw against the weakest first round opponent, Brighton are favorites to secure a spot in the Premier League.

Crystal Palace
Table position: 5
Goal difference: 11
Attack rating: 1.78 (Rank: 28)
Defense rating: 0.96 (Rank: 34)
Overall: 0.83 (Rank: 29)
Advances over Brighton at a rate of 39.45% to reach the final.
Wins promotion in 15.98% of simulations.
The longest shot to gain promotion according to our numbers and the bookmakers, but in a four team knockout, the odds are never all that long.

Leicester City
Table position: 6
Goal difference: 23
Attack rating: 1.90 (Rank: 21)
Defense rating: 0.76 (Rank: 20)
Overall: 1.14 (Rank: 23)
Advances over Watford at a rate of 48.31% to reach the final.
Wins promotion in 25.38% of simulations.Crept into the picture on the final day with a huge win over Nottingham Forest. You know, like a fox. Okay, I'm done, I'll be back soon to post weekend match odds for the Premier League, FA Cup Final, and give an update on the top four race. Enjoy the games.

Champions League, Promotion, and Relegation Odds: May 3

Back to handicap the races for spots in the Champions League, promotion playoffs, and relegation in English football.

Our projections continue to be optimistic for Chelsea and Arsenal, with the outlook even more positive after Spurs dropped points against Wigan. At the bottom, though, even the hard earned point for the Latics wasn't enough to offset Aston Villa's big win on Monday, as they are now heavy favorites to be the final team to go down. Villa's win and Newcastle's horrific form has even opened the door for the possibility of relegation for the Magpies.

In the Championship, with one game to go, Nottingham Forest and Leicester still may have a say in the promotion playoffs. Down below, while Wolves aren't officially relegated, they do not claw their way back into 21st place in any of our 5000 simulations. The final drop spot will likely be contested between Barnsley and Peterborough.

Match Forecasts May 4-8

The calendar has turned to May, and in English football that means that the Premier League is winding down and the lower divisions are finalizing the teams that will be promoted and relegated. For The Football Forecast, it means we don't have League Two poisoning our bet numbers anymore. Also, the numbers finally seem to have caught up to Reading's disastrous managerial change as, at last, they do not see value in victory for the Royals against Fulham this week.

The strong plays are the ones you'd expect from a statistical model: bet the teams with no reason to care to defeat highly motivated sides. This week is a good litmus test, as our Premier League projections see value in West Brom over Wigan, West Ham over Newcastle, and Man United over Chelsea.

Champions League, Promotion, and Relegation Odds: April 25

As we enter the home stretch in the English football season, we again simulate the remainder 5000 times to handicap the races for the Champions League, promotion playoffs, and relegation.

Tottenham gets a big boost after unexpectedly winning against Manchester City, but still appear the least likely of them, Arsenal, and Chelsea to lock up a spot in next season's champions league. Meanwhile, the third relegation spot looks to have come down to Aston Villa or Wigan with QPR and Reading already doomed.

In the Championship, the drama has turned to the playoff spots, as it's likely that three of them will go to Watford, Brighton, and Crystal Palace. Contending for the final spot are Bolton and Leicester, with Nottingham Forest on the outside looking in. When the playoff begins, I will be back to break down each team's chances of gaining promotion to the Premier League.

Match Odds April 27-30

Checking in today to post the odds for this weekend's matches, update the team ratings, and the wagering results.

This is apparently the final weekend of games for League One and League Two. Oddly, the former is the best league so far for the predictions here, while the latter has been disastrous.

As for the Premier League, the best values appear to be on Reading at home against QPR and Sunderland playing away to Aston Villa.

Back soon to forecast the top four, relegation, and promotion races.

England Matches April 22-23

A quick post for odds on the Tuesday English matches you will probably ignore this week while you watch the Champions League semifinal. I have included today's Premier League game from the last post as well too, showing United with a good chance to seal the deal.

Champions League, Promotion, and Relegation Odds: April 19

Back just before this weekend's games to give updated odds for Promotion, Relegation, and Champions League qualification for the top two English divisions, taking into account the Hull City draw earlier today.

Match Forecasts April 19-22

A new week of football is here, with the Champions League semifinals being the cherry on top! In England, we have a full weekend of league fixtures, all of which are projected here for your forecasting pleasure.

I have also updated the team ratings and wagering results accordingly. Back tomorrow with odds for Champions League qualification, relegation, and promotion!

Midweek Match Odds April 16-17

A quick update to post my projections for the action this Tuesday and Wednesday.

Top Four, Relegation, and Promotion odds

Using the current Team Ratings and applying the multinomial projection model, I have simulated the remainder of the season in the top two English football divisions 5000 times to handicap the battles for promotion, relegation, and Champions League entry:

Match Odds April 12 - April 14

After the apocalypse that hit home teams last weekend, let's take a look at the odds for this week according to each model.

Note: I have changed the ratings slightly, they now only go back one season and the weights favoring more recent games are increased. You can find the updated version here, as always.



Both models are quite fond of the value offered for Notts County to defeat Colchester at home at odds of 2.25.

Poisson Model Projections April 5 - April 8

Here are the result probabilities and suggested bets for each of the matches happening in England this weekend from our Poisson model. Bets are in Kelly betting units, this is how we track the profits, a higher number indicates greater confidence. I would recommend staying away from the League 2 games until we see a performance improvement!

Apologies for the format, I'm currently using Google fusion tables, which I'm not sure is the best long term solution. For information on this model and its past performance, please navigate to "More Info".

Multinomial Model Projections April 5 - April 8

Here are the result probabilities and suggested bets for each of the matches happening in England this weekend. Bets are in Kelly betting units, this is how we track the profits, a higher number indicates greater confidence. I would recommend staying away from the League 2 games until we see a performance improvement!

Apologies for the format, I'm currently using Google fusion tables, which I'm not sure is the best long term solution. For information on this model and its past performance, please navigate to "More Info".

Enjoy the games!