Match Odds April 27-30

Checking in today to post the odds for this weekend's matches, update the team ratings, and the wagering results.

This is apparently the final weekend of games for League One and League Two. Oddly, the former is the best league so far for the predictions here, while the latter has been disastrous.

As for the Premier League, the best values appear to be on Reading at home against QPR and Sunderland playing away to Aston Villa.

Back soon to forecast the top four, relegation, and promotion races.

Match Forecasts April 19-22

A new week of football is here, with the Champions League semifinals being the cherry on top! In England, we have a full weekend of league fixtures, all of which are projected here for your forecasting pleasure.

I have also updated the team ratings and wagering results accordingly. Back tomorrow with odds for Champions League qualification, relegation, and promotion!

Midweek Match Odds April 16-17

A quick update to post my projections for the action this Tuesday and Wednesday.

Match Odds April 12 - April 14

After the apocalypse that hit home teams last weekend, let's take a look at the odds for this week according to each model.

Note: I have changed the ratings slightly, they now only go back one season and the weights favoring more recent games are increased. You can find the updated version here, as always.



Both models are quite fond of the value offered for Notts County to defeat Colchester at home at odds of 2.25.

Poisson Model Projections April 5 - April 8

Here are the result probabilities and suggested bets for each of the matches happening in England this weekend from our Poisson model. Bets are in Kelly betting units, this is how we track the profits, a higher number indicates greater confidence. I would recommend staying away from the League 2 games until we see a performance improvement!

Apologies for the format, I'm currently using Google fusion tables, which I'm not sure is the best long term solution. For information on this model and its past performance, please navigate to "More Info".

Multinomial Model Projections April 5 - April 8

Here are the result probabilities and suggested bets for each of the matches happening in England this weekend. Bets are in Kelly betting units, this is how we track the profits, a higher number indicates greater confidence. I would recommend staying away from the League 2 games until we see a performance improvement!

Apologies for the format, I'm currently using Google fusion tables, which I'm not sure is the best long term solution. For information on this model and its past performance, please navigate to "More Info".

Enjoy the games!