Match Forecasts: January 24 - February 3

We've got the Bundesliga back in action this weekend, which means more cockroaches for Bayern Munich to stomp on between Champions League ties while they cruise toward the title.

As I'll be traveling next week, luckily finding time to attend Southampton vs Arsenal, I have posted match odds for the next two weeks. When I return we'll take another look at where the league projections are at.

Match Forecasts: January 17-21

So this was supposed to go up early this morning, but the schedule post feature failed me. Also, if you missed it earlier, I posted league projections that handicap all European races for titles, spots in the Champions League, and relegation.

Here we've got a preview of the league action over the weekend. After a poor start, our bet suggestions are on fire and priced at 1.33, the model LOVES a Villarreal win at home on Sunday. Elsewhere, we have Chelsea taking all three points over Man United at a 55% clip, with most of the other big teams heavy favorites.

League Projections: January 15

It's time to put our game models to further use and handicap the outcome of each league. By simulating all remaining games 5,000 times, we can estimate the odds each team has of winning the title, qualifying for the Champions League, or facing relegation.

Let's begin with the English Premier League. As they continue winning games by staggering margins, our model likes Manchester City to win the title nearly 60% of the time, with Arsenal and Chelsea to challenge. These projections also heavily favor Liverpool to join them in next season's Champions League, but lurking Man United can still catch up. The relegation battle should be fought until the very end, with seven teams currently in serious danger.

ENGLAND	Avg Pts	Champs	Top 4	Relegated
Man City	85.1	59.2%	99.3%	0.0%
Arsenal	81.6	19.9%	95.5%	0.0%
Chelsea	80.6	15.0%	93.6%	0.0%
Liverpool	77.7	5.7%	85.1%	0.0%
Everton	70.0	0.1%	15.4%	0.0%
Man United	67.5	0.0%	7.2%	0.0%
Tottenham	65.7	0.0%	3.9%	0.0%
Newcastle	54.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Southampton	54.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Hull	44.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%
Aston Villa	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	2.2%
Swansea	42.3	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%
West Brom	41.6	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%
Stoke	39.3	0.0%	0.0%	9.1%
Norwich	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	24.7%
West Ham	35.8	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%
Sunderland	34.0	0.0%	0.0%	40.2%
Fulham	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	65.6%
Cardiff	31.9	0.0%	0.0%	63.5%
Crystal Palace	31.8	0.0%	0.0%	63.2%

La Liga is home to the other exciting title race, with Barcelona favored over their rivals from the capital. It would also be fun to see Villarreal return to the Champions League after a year in the second division.

SPAIN	Avg Pts	Champs	Top 4	Relegated
Barcelona	95.0	58.4%	100.0%	0.0%
Ath Madrid	92.6	26.2%	100.0%	0.0%
Real Madrid	90.9	15.3%	100.0%	0.0%
Villarreal	69.3	0.0%	54.4%	0.0%
Sociedad	66.3	0.0%	24.7%	0.0%
Ath Bilbao	64.5	0.0%	14.4%	0.0%
Sevilla	61.3	0.0%	6.4%	0.0%
Valencia	50.8	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
Espanol	46.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%
Granada	45.4	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%
Levante	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%
Malaga	43.6	0.0%	0.0%	3.8%
Getafe	42.4	0.0%	0.0%	6.6%
Osasuna	41.8	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%
Celta	40.9	0.0%	0.0%	8.8%
Elche	37.2	0.0%	0.0%	26.9%
Almeria	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	39.0%
Valladolid	35.7	0.0%	0.0%	39.2%
Vallecano	31.8	0.0%	0.0%	74.3%
Betis	28.5	0.0%	0.0%	88.5%

The German Bundesliga is still on winter break, but a title for Bayern Munich is assured. Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund each won the title in two of the 5,000 simulations.
 

GERMANY	Avg Pts	Champs	Top 4	Relegated
Bayern Munich	90.8	99.92%	100.0%	0.0%
Leverkusen	70.3	0.04%	97.1%	0.0%
Dortmund	66.4	0.04%	89.7%	0.0%
M'Gladbach	61.9	0.00%	62.6%	0.0%
Wolfsburg	58.4	0.00%	27.3%	0.0%
Hertha	56.0	0.00%	12.9%	0.0%
Schalke 04	55.2	0.00%	10.3%	0.0%
Augsburg	44.5	0.00%	0.1%	0.2%
Mainz	43.5	0.00%	0.0%	0.4%
Stuttgart	40.5	0.00%	0.0%	2.1%
Hamburg	36.0	0.00%	0.0%	10.0%
Hoffenheim	35.9	0.00%	0.0%	11.0%
Hannover	35.9	0.00%	0.0%	12.3%
Ein Frankfurt	34.5	0.00%	0.0%	18.2%
Werder Bremen	33.4	0.00%	0.0%	29.0%
Freiburg	31.7	0.00%	0.0%	40.8%
Nurnberg	27.1	0.00%	0.0%	78.2%
Braunschweig	21.9	0.00%	0.0%	97.7%

On to Serie A, where despite Roma's storming start, a third straight Juventus championship is basically a foregone conclusion.
 

ITALY	Avg Pts	Champs	Top 3	Relegated
Juventus	97.5	96.4%	100.0%	0.0%
Roma	84.0	2.6%	95.3%	0.0%
Napoli	82.0	1.0%	90.5%	0.0%
Fiorentina	73.1	0.0%	13.9%	0.0%
Inter	61.3	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Verona	60.7	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Parma	52.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Milan	51.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Torino	51.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Lazio	50.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Genoa	45.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
Udinese	44.3	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%
Sampdoria	43.1	0.0%	0.0%	1.6%
Cagliari	42.1	0.0%	0.0%	2.7%
Atalanta	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	4.9%
Chievo	37.7	0.0%	0.0%	13.9%
Bologna	33.6	0.0%	0.0%	43.6%
Sassuolo	31.4	0.0%	0.0%	68.9%
Catania	30.2	0.0%	0.0%	74.9%
Livorno	27.7	0.0%	0.0%	88.0%

Finally, in Ligue 1, Paris Saint-Germain will almost certainly win the title, and recent champions Montpellier must be wary of going down.

FRANCE	Avg Pts	Champs	Top 3	Relegated
Paris SG	88.6	95.1%	100.0%	0.0%
Monaco	76.7	4.2%	95.6%	0.0%
Lille	72.2	0.6%	81.4%	0.0%
St Etienne	63.9	0.0%	13.0%	0.0%
Nantes	60.5	0.0%	4.0%	0.0%
Marseille	60.2	0.0%	3.5%	0.0%
Bordeaux	57.5	0.0%	1.3%	0.0%
Reims	57.2	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%
Lyon	52.9	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Toulouse	51.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Lorient	50.7	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Guingamp	48.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
Nice	46.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%
Bastia	43.8	0.0%	0.0%	3.3%
Rennes	42.4	0.0%	0.0%	5.3%
Montpellier	38.8	0.0%	0.0%	19.3%
Evian	38.6	0.0%	0.0%	23.7%
Valenciennes	35.7	0.0%	0.0%	47.5%
Sochaux	24.6	0.0%	0.0%	98.8%
Ajaccio	23.1	0.0%	0.0%	99.4%

Match Forecasts: January 10-13

We're back from holiday this week with a new set of predictions, and a newly updated regression model to boot.

The big game of note this weekend is obviously Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona. Our model has noticed that home field is more important in Spain than anywhere else, so it makes a very aggressive prediction in favor of the hosts to the tune of a 57% win rate. Before you sprint to the betting window, however, note that we have seen a dip in form for Barca due to the absence of Lionel Messi, and as it cannot account for lineup changes his return should provide the Spanish champions a huge boost. Still, this will easily be the biggest test Barcelona have faced all season.

Lastly, our league projections are coming soon, which I guess would be more fun if the title weren't essentially wrapped up by Bayern, Juventus, and PSG in their respective leagues. But the Premier League should see a roaring finish, so here's a quick preview of the title race based on 5000 simulations of the remaining games:

Team	Avg Pts	Champs
Man City	83.9	57.6%
Arsenal	80.7	22.5%
Chelsea	78.9	13.3%
Liverpool	76.5	6.4%

And for the weekend action:

EPL Holiday match forecasts

Happy holidays to everyone!

Match Forecasts: December 20-23

Our models' best bets were finally profitable last week so let's see if they keep it going! Flip around the tabs to explore the complete lineup of games this weekend.

Match Forecasts: December 13-16

Here are this weekend's match probabilities. Flip around the tabs to see different leagues: