Let's begin with the English Premier League. As they continue winning games by staggering margins, our model likes Manchester City to win the title nearly 60% of the time, with Arsenal and Chelsea to challenge. These projections also heavily favor Liverpool to join them in next season's Champions League, but lurking Man United can still catch up. The relegation battle should be fought until the very end, with seven teams currently in serious danger.
| ENGLAND | Avg Pts | Champs | Top 4 | Relegated |
| Man City | 85.1 | 59.2% | 99.3% | 0.0% |
| Arsenal | 81.6 | 19.9% | 95.5% | 0.0% |
| Chelsea | 80.6 | 15.0% | 93.6% | 0.0% |
| Liverpool | 77.7 | 5.7% | 85.1% | 0.0% |
| Everton | 70.0 | 0.1% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Man United | 67.5 | 0.0% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Tottenham | 65.7 | 0.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Newcastle | 54.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southampton | 54.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hull | 44.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Aston Villa | 42.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| Swansea | 42.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| West Brom | 41.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| Stoke | 39.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Norwich | 36.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.7% |
| West Ham | 35.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Sunderland | 34.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.2% |
| Fulham | 32.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 65.6% |
| Cardiff | 31.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 63.5% |
| Crystal Palace | 31.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 63.2% |
La Liga is home to the other exciting title race, with Barcelona favored over their rivals from the capital. It would also be fun to see Villarreal return to the Champions League after a year in the second division.
| SPAIN | Avg Pts | Champs | Top 4 | Relegated |
| Barcelona | 95.0 | 58.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Ath Madrid | 92.6 | 26.2% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Real Madrid | 90.9 | 15.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Villarreal | 69.3 | 0.0% | 54.4% | 0.0% |
| Sociedad | 66.3 | 0.0% | 24.7% | 0.0% |
| Ath Bilbao | 64.5 | 0.0% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Sevilla | 61.3 | 0.0% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| Valencia | 50.8 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Espanol | 46.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Granada | 45.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% |
| Levante | 44.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| Malaga | 43.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.8% |
| Getafe | 42.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
| Osasuna | 41.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.8% |
| Celta | 40.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.8% |
| Elche | 37.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.9% |
| Almeria | 36.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.0% |
| Valladolid | 35.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.2% |
| Vallecano | 31.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 74.3% |
| Betis | 28.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 88.5% |
The German Bundesliga is still on winter break, but a title for Bayern Munich is assured. Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund each won the title in two of the 5,000 simulations.
| GERMANY | Avg Pts | Champs | Top 4 | Relegated |
| Bayern Munich | 90.8 | 99.92% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Leverkusen | 70.3 | 0.04% | 97.1% | 0.0% |
| Dortmund | 66.4 | 0.04% | 89.7% | 0.0% |
| M'Gladbach | 61.9 | 0.00% | 62.6% | 0.0% |
| Wolfsburg | 58.4 | 0.00% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Hertha | 56.0 | 0.00% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| Schalke 04 | 55.2 | 0.00% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Augsburg | 44.5 | 0.00% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Mainz | 43.5 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Stuttgart | 40.5 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| Hamburg | 36.0 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Hoffenheim | 35.9 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 11.0% |
| Hannover | 35.9 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 12.3% |
| Ein Frankfurt | 34.5 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Werder Bremen | 33.4 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 29.0% |
| Freiburg | 31.7 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 40.8% |
| Nurnberg | 27.1 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 78.2% |
| Braunschweig | 21.9 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 97.7% |
On to Serie A, where despite Roma's storming start, a third straight Juventus championship is basically a foregone conclusion.
| ITALY | Avg Pts | Champs | Top 3 | Relegated |
| Juventus | 97.5 | 96.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Roma | 84.0 | 2.6% | 95.3% | 0.0% |
| Napoli | 82.0 | 1.0% | 90.5% | 0.0% |
| Fiorentina | 73.1 | 0.0% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| Inter | 61.3 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Verona | 60.7 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parma | 52.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Milan | 51.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torino | 51.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lazio | 50.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genoa | 45.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Udinese | 44.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Sampdoria | 43.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| Cagliari | 42.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Atalanta | 40.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Chievo | 37.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.9% |
| Bologna | 33.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43.6% |
| Sassuolo | 31.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 68.9% |
| Catania | 30.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 74.9% |
| Livorno | 27.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 88.0% |
Finally, in Ligue 1, Paris Saint-Germain will almost certainly win the title, and recent champions Montpellier must be wary of going down.
| FRANCE | Avg Pts | Champs | Top 3 | Relegated |
| Paris SG | 88.6 | 95.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Monaco | 76.7 | 4.2% | 95.6% | 0.0% |
| Lille | 72.2 | 0.6% | 81.4% | 0.0% |
| St Etienne | 63.9 | 0.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Nantes | 60.5 | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Marseille | 60.2 | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Bordeaux | 57.5 | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Reims | 57.2 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Lyon | 52.9 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Toulouse | 51.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Lorient | 50.7 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Guingamp | 48.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Nice | 46.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| Bastia | 43.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| Rennes | 42.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| Montpellier | 38.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.3% |
| Evian | 38.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.7% |
| Valenciennes | 35.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.5% |
| Sochaux | 24.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 98.8% |
| Ajaccio | 23.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.4% |
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