Thursday, September 26, 2013

Match Forecasts: September 27-30

Back to post the game probabilities for this weekend's action.

Of the big games this weekend, our model gives Spurs and Chelsea each an equal shot in their early Saturday showdown, while it likes Real Madrid to come out on top of their local rivals Atletico nearly 70% of the time. Bayern Munich's dominance continues, as we give them only a 2% chance to lose at home to an above average Wolfsburg team.

Flip through the tabs on the table below to examine the forecasts for each of the top five leagues. As always, the ratings that feed our model have been updated after the midweek action and can be viewed over on the left frame. Enjoy the games this weekend.

Monday, September 23, 2013

Match Forecasts: September 24-26

While the English and German teams look towards a week of cup action, there are league games to be played in France, Italy, and Spain. Here's the debut of our Serie A predictions along with the other midweek fixtures.

It's worth noting just how badly Sassuolo has fared in the Serie A thus far. With one goal scored and fifteen conceded in their four games, we rate them more than three goals worse than Verona, the second worst team in our rankings. We need to expand our decimal places to see that our model gives them a 0.04% chance to win in Napoli--good for once in 2,500 tries! So don't get tempted by the 14 to 1 payout betting them.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Match Forecasts: September 20-22

And we're back!

I have run my first version of team ratings for the top five leagues, which can be found on the left sidebar, and fed them into our logistic regression model to assign probabilities to this weekend's games.

As our ratings are still trying to get a good grasp on newly promoted teams, I won't be tracking bet amounts for the model for another week or two. Also, as the Italian league has played only three rounds to date, we are going to give the model another week to adjust before publishing forecasts in Serie A.

Flip around the tabs in the spreadsheet below to examine different leagues.