Thursday, November 28, 2013

Match Forecasts: November 29 - December 2

Happy Thanksgiving to fellow Americans! Flip around the tabs below to look at the big games, best bets, and games for all of the top five leagues:

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Match Forecasts: November 22-25

After the merciful end of the international break, we get back into league football this weekend.

I've added a couple new features to match forecasts this week. Firstly, the big games of interest across the leagues covered here are all grouped together on one sheet! In addition, I've taken the odds from Bet365, put them against my probabilities, and noted the games with the best perceived betting value, which happens this week to be mostly for home teams. The "amount" refers to a calculation made by the Kelly Criterion, which should always be used to determine a model's strength in beating books.

Flip around the new features and the usual fully detailed forecasts of the top five leagues in the sheet below:

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Match Forecasts: November 8-10

With another weekend of matches to come in Europe, let's take a look at the match odds.

The first of the main events in this round features Manchester United hosting Premier League leaders Arsenal, who we split about evenly. Meanwhile, Napoli visits Juventus, who now top our Serie A predictive ratings, and our model likes them to take a win over half the time. In Spain Real Madrid are expected to take care of Sociedad and Villarreal, who our numbers have loved all season long, are surprising favorites to come out on top over Atletico Madrid.

More content to come in this space when I get some more time, including final table predictions with a view to handicap races for titles, Champions League spots, and relegation.