We've got the Bundesliga back in action this weekend, which means more cockroaches for Bayern Munich to stomp on between Champions League ties while they cruise toward the title.
As I'll be traveling next week, luckily finding time to attend Southampton vs Arsenal, I have posted match odds for the next two weeks. When I return we'll take another look at where the league projections are at.
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Friday, January 17, 2014
Match Forecasts: January 17-21
So this was supposed to go up early this morning, but the schedule post feature failed me. Also, if you missed it earlier, I posted league projections that handicap all European races for titles, spots in the Champions League, and relegation.
Here we've got a preview of the league action over the weekend. After a poor start, our bet suggestions are on fire and priced at 1.33, the model LOVES a Villarreal win at home on Sunday. Elsewhere, we have Chelsea taking all three points over Man United at a 55% clip, with most of the other big teams heavy favorites.
Here we've got a preview of the league action over the weekend. After a poor start, our bet suggestions are on fire and priced at 1.33, the model LOVES a Villarreal win at home on Sunday. Elsewhere, we have Chelsea taking all three points over Man United at a 55% clip, with most of the other big teams heavy favorites.
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
League Projections: January 15
It's time to put our game models to further use and handicap the outcome of each league. By simulating all remaining games 5,000 times, we can estimate the odds each team has of winning the title, qualifying for the Champions League, or facing relegation.
Let's begin with the English Premier League. As they continue winning games by staggering margins, our model likes Manchester City to win the title nearly 60% of the time, with Arsenal and Chelsea to challenge. These projections also heavily favor Liverpool to join them in next season's Champions League, but lurking Man United can still catch up. The relegation battle should be fought until the very end, with seven teams currently in serious danger.
La Liga is home to the other exciting title race, with Barcelona favored over their rivals from the capital. It would also be fun to see Villarreal return to the Champions League after a year in the second division.
The German Bundesliga is still on winter break, but a title for Bayern Munich is assured. Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund each won the title in two of the 5,000 simulations.
On to Serie A, where despite Roma's storming start, a third straight Juventus championship is basically a foregone conclusion.
Finally, in Ligue 1, Paris Saint-Germain will almost certainly win the title, and recent champions Montpellier must be wary of going down.
Let's begin with the English Premier League. As they continue winning games by staggering margins, our model likes Manchester City to win the title nearly 60% of the time, with Arsenal and Chelsea to challenge. These projections also heavily favor Liverpool to join them in next season's Champions League, but lurking Man United can still catch up. The relegation battle should be fought until the very end, with seven teams currently in serious danger.
| ENGLAND | Avg Pts | Champs | Top 4 | Relegated |
| Man City | 85.1 | 59.2% | 99.3% | 0.0% |
| Arsenal | 81.6 | 19.9% | 95.5% | 0.0% |
| Chelsea | 80.6 | 15.0% | 93.6% | 0.0% |
| Liverpool | 77.7 | 5.7% | 85.1% | 0.0% |
| Everton | 70.0 | 0.1% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Man United | 67.5 | 0.0% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Tottenham | 65.7 | 0.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Newcastle | 54.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southampton | 54.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hull | 44.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Aston Villa | 42.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| Swansea | 42.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| West Brom | 41.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| Stoke | 39.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Norwich | 36.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.7% |
| West Ham | 35.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Sunderland | 34.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.2% |
| Fulham | 32.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 65.6% |
| Cardiff | 31.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 63.5% |
| Crystal Palace | 31.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 63.2% |
La Liga is home to the other exciting title race, with Barcelona favored over their rivals from the capital. It would also be fun to see Villarreal return to the Champions League after a year in the second division.
| SPAIN | Avg Pts | Champs | Top 4 | Relegated |
| Barcelona | 95.0 | 58.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Ath Madrid | 92.6 | 26.2% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Real Madrid | 90.9 | 15.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Villarreal | 69.3 | 0.0% | 54.4% | 0.0% |
| Sociedad | 66.3 | 0.0% | 24.7% | 0.0% |
| Ath Bilbao | 64.5 | 0.0% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Sevilla | 61.3 | 0.0% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| Valencia | 50.8 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Espanol | 46.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Granada | 45.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% |
| Levante | 44.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| Malaga | 43.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.8% |
| Getafe | 42.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
| Osasuna | 41.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.8% |
| Celta | 40.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.8% |
| Elche | 37.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.9% |
| Almeria | 36.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.0% |
| Valladolid | 35.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.2% |
| Vallecano | 31.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 74.3% |
| Betis | 28.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 88.5% |
The German Bundesliga is still on winter break, but a title for Bayern Munich is assured. Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund each won the title in two of the 5,000 simulations.
| GERMANY | Avg Pts | Champs | Top 4 | Relegated |
| Bayern Munich | 90.8 | 99.92% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Leverkusen | 70.3 | 0.04% | 97.1% | 0.0% |
| Dortmund | 66.4 | 0.04% | 89.7% | 0.0% |
| M'Gladbach | 61.9 | 0.00% | 62.6% | 0.0% |
| Wolfsburg | 58.4 | 0.00% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Hertha | 56.0 | 0.00% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| Schalke 04 | 55.2 | 0.00% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Augsburg | 44.5 | 0.00% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Mainz | 43.5 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Stuttgart | 40.5 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| Hamburg | 36.0 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Hoffenheim | 35.9 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 11.0% |
| Hannover | 35.9 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 12.3% |
| Ein Frankfurt | 34.5 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Werder Bremen | 33.4 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 29.0% |
| Freiburg | 31.7 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 40.8% |
| Nurnberg | 27.1 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 78.2% |
| Braunschweig | 21.9 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 97.7% |
On to Serie A, where despite Roma's storming start, a third straight Juventus championship is basically a foregone conclusion.
| ITALY | Avg Pts | Champs | Top 3 | Relegated |
| Juventus | 97.5 | 96.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Roma | 84.0 | 2.6% | 95.3% | 0.0% |
| Napoli | 82.0 | 1.0% | 90.5% | 0.0% |
| Fiorentina | 73.1 | 0.0% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| Inter | 61.3 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Verona | 60.7 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parma | 52.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Milan | 51.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torino | 51.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lazio | 50.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genoa | 45.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Udinese | 44.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Sampdoria | 43.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| Cagliari | 42.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Atalanta | 40.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Chievo | 37.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.9% |
| Bologna | 33.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43.6% |
| Sassuolo | 31.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 68.9% |
| Catania | 30.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 74.9% |
| Livorno | 27.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 88.0% |
Finally, in Ligue 1, Paris Saint-Germain will almost certainly win the title, and recent champions Montpellier must be wary of going down.
| FRANCE | Avg Pts | Champs | Top 3 | Relegated |
| Paris SG | 88.6 | 95.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Monaco | 76.7 | 4.2% | 95.6% | 0.0% |
| Lille | 72.2 | 0.6% | 81.4% | 0.0% |
| St Etienne | 63.9 | 0.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Nantes | 60.5 | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Marseille | 60.2 | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Bordeaux | 57.5 | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Reims | 57.2 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Lyon | 52.9 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Toulouse | 51.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Lorient | 50.7 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Guingamp | 48.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Nice | 46.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| Bastia | 43.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| Rennes | 42.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| Montpellier | 38.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.3% |
| Evian | 38.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.7% |
| Valenciennes | 35.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.5% |
| Sochaux | 24.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 98.8% |
| Ajaccio | 23.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.4% |
Thursday, January 9, 2014
Match Forecasts: January 10-13
We're back from holiday this week with a new set of predictions, and a newly updated regression model to boot.
The big game of note this weekend is obviously Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona. Our model has noticed that home field is more important in Spain than anywhere else, so it makes a very aggressive prediction in favor of the hosts to the tune of a 57% win rate. Before you sprint to the betting window, however, note that we have seen a dip in form for Barca due to the absence of Lionel Messi, and as it cannot account for lineup changes his return should provide the Spanish champions a huge boost. Still, this will easily be the biggest test Barcelona have faced all season.
Lastly, our league projections are coming soon, which I guess would be more fun if the title weren't essentially wrapped up by Bayern, Juventus, and PSG in their respective leagues. But the Premier League should see a roaring finish, so here's a quick preview of the title race based on 5000 simulations of the remaining games:
And for the weekend action:
The big game of note this weekend is obviously Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona. Our model has noticed that home field is more important in Spain than anywhere else, so it makes a very aggressive prediction in favor of the hosts to the tune of a 57% win rate. Before you sprint to the betting window, however, note that we have seen a dip in form for Barca due to the absence of Lionel Messi, and as it cannot account for lineup changes his return should provide the Spanish champions a huge boost. Still, this will easily be the biggest test Barcelona have faced all season.
Lastly, our league projections are coming soon, which I guess would be more fun if the title weren't essentially wrapped up by Bayern, Juventus, and PSG in their respective leagues. But the Premier League should see a roaring finish, so here's a quick preview of the title race based on 5000 simulations of the remaining games:
| Team | Avg Pts | Champs |
| Man City | 83.9 | 57.6% |
| Arsenal | 80.7 | 22.5% |
| Chelsea | 78.9 | 13.3% |
| Liverpool | 76.5 | 6.4% |
And for the weekend action:
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