Manchester United is obviously locked in for the Champions League with their title in hand, while their local rivals do not fail to finish top four in any of my 5000 simulations for the remainder of the league. That leaves the final two spots to be fought out in London, between Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham Hotspur. In our sims, Chelsea qualifies 94.52% of the time, having received a huge boost winning at Old Trafford on Sunday. Meanwhile, Arsenal manage to finish in the top four in 82.04% of our seasons, which leaves Spurs behind at 23.46%.
Currently, I have Chelsea as a 55% favorite to defeat Spurs at Stamford Bridge tomorrow, with 27% chance of a draw and only a 18% chance that Spurs come away with a vital win. If they do that, however, it would be a massive boost as Spurs would finish top four 62.9% of the time, with Chelsea's odds dropping to 76.7% and Arsenal's to 60.4%.
At the bottom, with Reading and QPR already down, the final relegation spot looks certain to belong to one of Wigan, Norwich, Newcastle, or Sunderland. The full odds are below for all candidates:
I will be back of course to preview the Championship playoffs later in the week!