Thursday, October 17, 2013
Match Forecasts: October 18-21
After a long international break, European leagues resume this weekend.
The big clashes of this round are in Serie A. Our logistic model likes Roma to continue their astonishing winning streak at home against second place Napoli more than half the time and make it eight wins in eight, while it also sees some betting value in Fiorentina to come away victorious over the defending champions Juventus.
Elsewhere, incredibly, we also see some value against the books on a Bayern Munich victory over Mainz that would pay out ten cents on the dollar. In the Premier League, the big clubs are heavily favored, but expect Aston Villa to give Spurs all they can handle.
As the ratings begin to get a feel for newly promoted teams and the landscape of each league, over the next month or two I will begin to examine betting recommendations and handicap the races for titles, Champions League places, and relegation.