Friday, April 5, 2013

Weekend Tips April 5 - April 8

I have posted the probability of a win, draw, or loss for every team's match this weekend. Let's take a look at the best betting values, according to the consensus of our two models. No games from League 2 will be considered until our performance improves in that arena.

Notts County to win at Bournemouth
Odds: 6.5; Multinomial model: 30%; Poisson model: 27.3%
Bournemouth is looking towards promotion while Notts County is toiling in mid-table of League One, but while our model likes Bournemouth's chances, it cannot resist snatching up Notts at such appealing odds.

Manchester United to defeat Manchester City at Old Trafford
Odds: 2.2; Multinomial model: 50.9%; Poisson model: 57.8%
The title race is all but over, and our numbers see value in United putting the final nail in the coffin at their home ground.

Coventry City to beat Brentford at home
Odds: 2.8; Multinomial model: 43.6%; Poisson model: 46%
Coventry easily has the best goal difference in League One's bottom half and our projections like the value in them defending their home ground against the promotion candidates.

Reading over Southampton at home
Odds: 3.25; Multinomial Model: 35.3%; Poisson: 47.8%
Our numbers love Southampton more than you'd expect (11th overall, 9th best attack) but these odds indicate that the bookies have overlooked Reading's chances to beat them at home as they fight to stay in the top division. Note that our projections do not factor in a new manager for Reading, only last weekend's poor result against Arsenal. Proceed with caution.

Good luck and enjoy the games!

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